College football was all about Kansas last Saturday Kansas! I think hes bringing a lot of new ideas to our conference that maybe we havent thought about before., New York City mayor Eric Adams recently cracked that Kansas doesnt have a brand.. Herbert makes case to get paid Luckily, the Rams have ideal replacements waiting in the wings like um well maybe they can draft oh right. Well, the power of the Shanahan scheme. The two teams combined for just 2.66 net yards per play, which is the fifth-lowest combined average in any game since 1981 and the lowest combined average of this century. Not to take anything away from the Seahawks, they clearly won the trade no matter what Geno does next year. The Cardinals are seventh right now in pass rush win rate, and ESPN Stats & Info charting has them 13th in pressure rate. care to make a prediction that the Packers next quarterback is going to be a Hall of famer? It's not hard to figure out when an organization is changing and when it isn't, you just need to look at the overall turnover. In reply to Not to be pedantic with your by Mike B. The Cardinals, Browns, and Bears were at the bottom of our preseason projections, and there's no real surprise from seeing the Texans and Steelers already flipping through draft catalogs. In reply to Sir - As a 51 year old by billprudden. Philly's got 9 in the same stretch of time. Like I said, the Bengals should be favored. Withno evidence. In Va. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Lots and lots of teams have been really really good and not won. We're not talking about comparing teams, we're talking about comparing offenses ingames- notanoffense compared to another offense,alloffense (by both teams) in a game compared toalloffense (by both teams) in another game. DAVE is currently 36% preseason forecast and 64% actual performance for teams with nine games, and 45% preseason forecast and 55% actual performance for teams with eight games. That paired with generational talent as a runner is a reason to give him at least another year, and maybe reason enough to play him even if he never becomes an above average passer (as appears likely). We have seen 8-3 teams miss the playoffs before, although that usually requires a quarterback injury (see Lamar Jackson for the 2021 Ravens or Nick Foles for the 2014 Eagles). Some teams are choosing to go all-in, accepting that they're going to take a step back, a hard crash, or have to rely on rookies. And in the post-Brady era, Belichick and Co. haven't played with their food when they have clearly been the better team entering a matchup. In reply to You do sometimes post as if by Noahrk. And when it fails, all you can conclude is, "well, the organization must have eroded now". The Titans, meanwhile, are practically a smokescreen on both sides of the ball due to injuries. The fact that UNC lost to Kansas in the NCAA finals last year will never sully the amazing feeling of the SF win to end Ratface's career. I'm also putting the Dolphins and Ravens in this category; the other two AFC division leaders both are above 85% in our playoff odds and are in very good shape but can't kick back and relax quite yet. The Bengals should be favored, but this spread is too big by a field goal. There's a second tier, just above the teams we have declared dead and buried, of teams that would need to suddenly and dramatically improve in order to make the playoffs, but haven't dug themselves in a hole so deep as to make a sudden turnaround meaningless. In reply to I'm not talking aboutactual by Pat. If Cousins ends his career with 47,000 passing yards, he will rank either 15th or 16th on the all-time list, depending on what happens to Russell Wilson (now 23rd) in the next few years. In reply to Again I'll posit this to NE by crw78. On defense, the run defense was better over the last five weeks but the pass defense got worse. In reply to It's not really an either-or by Pat. I amapplyingthis evidence to conclude that the high level of success of certain football organizations over anextremelylarge period of time is not random. No pass at all would have been better than those throws, doubly so on the Alexander pick which took 3 points off the board. Sorta losing one you should have won and winning one you should have lost kinda(not quite bc history) balance. Excluding ties, there are 16,384 possible outcomes in the NFC North race. And for me, more curiously, they keep winning in a very similar way up until recently because of Lamar. Yormark plans to do the same with the Big 12. A good contrast is the 2000s Bucs vs the 2000s Eagles and I leave it to fans of those teams to chime in how they feel. In reply to 2021 TEN Titans by jheidelberg. Imagine if the 49ers had held onto their late lead in the NFC Championship Game. Yes, the schedule is hard, but a lot of that is focused in the Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs games. Yeah, you're right; the force out td miss playoffs on the last play was 2003. If Smith is playing so well, why does Seattle have a losing record? In reply to It doesn't matter if your by Pat, https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202211060kan.htm. How would you feel if the Giants LOST those two Super Bowls? Bullets 2 and 3 are related to bullet 4. Whoops the organization must have declined", In reply to Against my better judgement, by theslothook. If you go through the logs for Zappe, you see a ton of passing from under center and running from shotgun (in fact, it's almost the opposite pattern- passing primarily from under center, running from shotgun, and lots of play action). Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. What we need, then, is an upset somewhere or other. And it's probably the last time we'll get to say that, too, as the clock is finally beginning to run out on the bottom-feeders. If you did the usual average, youd get the wrong answer. Gooo, Candi! He currently ranks 10th in receiving DVOA and has caught 17 out of 28 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown, plus he drew a 47-yard pass interference flag for the Raiders. Sam Ehlinger shows promise but he only took the reins last week. I don't, but it's a rather complicated joke. Arizona has actually been very good against opposing No. New 5 or 10 Football Bet Bundles. 1 despite the adjustments for that No. Turnovers are obviously highly negative plays for an offense, which is reflected in the worst combined DVOA (however you measure it). The main reason for that: there were only two turnovers, one by each team. They're addressing one specific problem. After this week's game at Buffalo, they only have road games against each of their weaker division rivals. No! But you may need us to add some data to the conversation. Teams not gaining ground is awful to watch. Yeah, that game was a masterpiece of horrible o-line play. He completely 9 passes with 2 picks and a passer rating of22.6! But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. And don't sleep on this week, eithera loss to the Bengals is far from out of the question, and would give Cincinnati the potential tiebreaker while being only one win behind. On the one hand, it's encouraging to see Fields on a list with Allen and Wilson. It's not just that Cooper Kupp is injured and Michael Thomas doesn't really exist. Why would Xmas eve Iggles v Cowgirls be a deciding game when the Eagles are currently 2.5 games up on Dallas, not 1? You have to lower the "relevant" threshold pretty far to get a team thathasn'twon a Super Bowl. NFL Week 9 - The Indianapolis Colts have officially ruled out running back Jonathan Taylor in the team's Week 9 game against the New England Patriots, according to a report from the Colts' Twitter account. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. The #Vikings win 16,281 of them The #Lions win 87 of them The #Packers win 16 of them. But it's impossible to make any firm judgments on a quarterback who has either scrambled or been sacked on 83 of his 290 dropbacks (29%). And Im not going to apologize for it.. And I get it; I watched Monday's game as well. Our advanced stats at Football Outsiders show further just how closely packed this year's teams are. The television networks. I think that's because many Philly fans understand that the only way to win a Super Bowlisto be consistently relevant. Hes bold, aggressive, very innovative. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Somehow Seattle came out of that trade with all the draft picks AND the better starting QB. Everett has three top-eight tight end finishes this season, and in Week 7, he faces a Seahawks team giving up THE MOST fantasy points to tight ends. But for now, Yormark has everyones attention. You only read one of them. In reply to That's because all of the by Pat. Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay in the playoffs two years ago? Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. I'd rather never see my team get to a SB than have them make it and lose the way the Seahawks and Falcons did. 31 DVOA defense. Fifty more career touchdowns would place him just behind Johnny Unitas in 18th place overall. Let me try to bridge all of this with a source of agreement. I.e. DVOA doesn't measure magic, and believing that teams can will themselves better when they want to is wishcasting - because if it wasn't, teams would just do it all the time - because why wouldn't you? Basically, the notion that defenses tempt QBs and coordinators to keep putting the game in the QB's hands doesn't appear to be true.the cause and effect are reversed. That would be a rousing victory for the conference. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. But a 20-year stretch is a good example, especially because once you go back morethan 20 years, the NFL's almost entirely different. Fantasy Football Fantasy Football; we've seen some things worth exploring. His 74.8 QBR is shocking as he has never put up higher than a 51.8 QBR in a season with more than 50 pass attempts. Click here for the full table. How did that happen? Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor Ruled Out Sunday vs. Patriots, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . In July, he famously said at his first press conference that the Big 12 was open for business, and in the second straight summer of realignment, the press corps ran with the idea that the Big 12 was seeking to expand by pilfering schools from the staggered Pac-12. There has been a good amount of parity across the league in 2022, as well as lopsided teams with a good offense and a bad defense (or vice versa). The receiver room has been banged up. Burrow is 13-of-16 on such passes. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? The Seahawks offense is averaging 2.17 open field yards per carry, most in the league. Something similar seems to be the case for Allen recentlyit feels like the conventional wisdom for any offense with The Very Model Of A Modern Moble Passer is now to keep doing what they'd been doing whether they have a lead or not, thus defenses continue to defend that. And I think that was the part of his comment missed by some other posters. I think the Texans will fall into the latter category now that Jack Easterby has been called back to the comet. I'd like to welcome you to Lions fandom, where you'll never have the threat of winning a Super Bowl. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through nine weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). The QB's were as different as you could get in terms of how they played. The lists do not show all contributions to every state ballot measure, or each independent expenditure committee formed to support or In my 50+ Adult years of watching / being a fan of sports it still stands as the single most painful moment of my sports fandom I recall. I said the Bills with Allen will have plenty of chances. Pittsburgh is pretty simple: T.J. Watt got hurt and the defense got worse, and Kenny Pickett has not been as good as Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. I'm a Vikings fan,and thus have completely abandoned any hope of ever witnessing a championship. Exhibitionist & Voyeur 04/04/17: I, Candi Ch. Smith's rate of 9.4% is the lowest on record and the only figure for a starting quarterback under 10% in their data set. Opponent adjustments are currently at 90% strength. For example, the Bears had two possessions after the Lions took a 31-30 lead in the fourth quarter. The Panthers and Saints could be written off entirely if they didn't happen to play in the NFC South. Indianapolis DAVE rating is now based on a projection with Sam Ehrlinger at quarterback. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Nowhere else on FO do we invert DVOA to get a Defense-adjusted Plays-to-score-a-point Under Average before we combine them or talk about their meaning. Again, top 10 franchises in winning percentage since 2000: every single one has a Super Bowl, and every single one has more division titles than Minnesota. I think most fans forget the "one and done" Faustian bargain a couple of years down the road. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. 5, passing the Chiefs. That's the problem with these discussions. Doesn't really matter all that much in hindsight, but at the time 07 and 10 were pretty devastating, because I (and many other Pats fans) came to believe that they would always be really close but never win again, which was kind of torturous. There's a good chance that whichever of these four teams does well enough to be on top of this mini-division will also be doing well enough to make a run at their division title. Alex Smith had a game where he had a negative ANY/A with 42 net passing yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. However, I took his sentiment in more of a completely hypothetical kind of way. Click here for the full table. We didn't quite have a 14 point lead, but it was 11 points (2 scores) at the half, and would have been 14 if we hadn't squandered that final play before half. They had problems with run defense when he was healthy, because he was a liability outside of the 5-man fronts, so theydidn't play himthen. It's a weird thing to pick at, is what I'm saying. When I went to Texas-Texas Tech, it was like a Super Bowl environment. The replacements have been abysmal. No disrespect to anyone whos been here, theyve done a great job, but I think theres so many places we can go.. If your consistently say, a 1-4 seed, I think it's working. I have evidence, based on years of experience with many different kinds of large organizations. Jackson Roberts: Las Vegas Raiders. No matter how you want to measure it, the theme to the season is parity. KC in the AFCCG is a great example. The latest football odds are updated regularly with little to no notice at all as the game nears kick-off, half-time, or the final whistle. In reply to The crazy thing is if by Moridin. In reply to Maybe - I have this niggling by serutan. As an Eagles fan, I can speak to this. That's a lot to ask for in one week, but they'll probably lock things up in Week 14, alongside everyone else on this list. The lists do not show all contributions to every state ballot measure, or each independent expenditure committee formed to support or Smith's rate of 9.4% is the lowest on record and the only figure for a starting quarterback under 10% in their data set. As for the Eagles and Cowboys, that Week 16 rematch is a killer; if the Cowboys win that they'll have split the head-to-head series and will likely have the divisional record tiebreaker to boot, barring a Week 18 slip-up against Washington. In nearly every case, Seattle has to not only catch but pass the 49ers to win the NFC West, and that's a tall order unless San Francisco absolutely crumbles. 10: Penalty Box (4.83) Win or Lose. And the waste. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. 98, went to France expecting great things, but only France got great things. There is a strong hostage situation vibe coming out of that place. Shakir is too young, McKenzie too inconsistent, and I have no idea what the deal is with Knox. Don't get me wrong, -8.1% is far, far better than anyone expected the Giants to be this season, but there's only so long they can keep winning with these underlying performances. In reply to I'd rather never see my team by Romodini. With home games against Dallas, NE, Indy, Jets & Giants, I just can't see them going worse than 4-4 in those last 8 games unless something significant turns around. Backup quarterbacks are suddenly dominating Big 12 football. He was benched for Caleb Hanie near the end of the third quarter after throwing four picks, and the Bears won anyway. If the Cardinals can get that pressure home, their pass defense may improve and give them a chance to make a run at a playoff spot. A secondary reason why Sunday's game wasn't among the worst ever is opponent adjustments, as both the Patriots and the Colts now qualify as top-10 defenses. Creator of DVOA andDYAR The Colts o-line is playing so terribly that it doesnt really matter who the QB, RB, or coach is at this point. If you think that bar is too high, then predict how good he will be? Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. And the numbers don't change meaningfully if you slide the definition of "winning big" down to 13 or up to 16. In reply to To further drive the point by MJK. If you're that great, and can make plays when you need to, why wait until third down? We already list the Eagles with a 100% chance to make the playoffs after rounding, even though that's technically not accurate; they can clinch the postseason this week with a win and losses by the Commanders, Seahawks, and 49ers. Only Philadelphia (5-0) is still unbeaten, and no team is still winless. Hes on a mission. It's actually kinda amazing that only 1 was worked out (MIA) so far. In general, it's better to look at the entire season when judging how good a team is playing. By that I mean, in other universes, Allen completes a few more long passes and these games get rendered over rather than nail bitters and close losses. I like Denver's pass rush to play havoc with Zach Wilson, leading to turnovers and short fields for the offense. did their's. In large part to something you argued, Pat. On offense, the passing game has been a little bit better but the running game was worse without Cordarrelle Patterson in the lineup. The likelihood of them maintaining such a ridiculous win rate through the back half of the season is certainly low. Ah, but the Rams are also already $12 million in the red for 2024, when the Saints at least can start climbing out of their worst contract situations. Otherwise you end up with nonsense like a totally alien planet having things named after Falcons. And when Jordan Davis comes back, the Eagles run defense could turn from a weakness into a relative strength. There are no guarantees. They have had 3 or fewer losses in a season 8 times. And if someone disagrees with me and offers cogent reasons why; well it sucks to be wrong but I'd rather be better informed. The Jaguars are eighth in overall DVOA on the season, but only 27th since crushing the Chargers on the road in Week 3. Were going to be on our way to make ourselves younger, hipper, cooler, Yormark said. Theoretically, you could, but practically, the noise would be way too large. That's an average of 22 per game. The Tennessee Titans rank 25th against WR1s, 31st against WR2s, and 28th against "Other WR." For every interloper title winner like the Giants, there's a team like the Chargers or the 2000s Eagles who made the playoffs a bunch and have nothing to show for it. Nascent Packers fans (myself among them) spent a LOT of time complaining about the turtle-mode playcalling of Mike McCarthy back in the day. For a high upside play among non-stars, Gallup feels frisky this week. I literally didn't read about, watch or otherwise interact with football close to 10 months afterwards. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Themedianis 93.5, and Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan are all well above that. They likely should have lost to either Cincinnati or Cleveland, and they outright lost to Jacksonville last week. If you are curious, the 1996 Baltimore Ravens are the only team to ever finish a season with the No. Last year was the "getting over the top" year, ala the early 2000s Bucs, In reply to the weird thing about this conversation is that the Rams weren't by JoelBarlow. In reply to 2000 Vikings! Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. To me, they read like a paper tiger all the way. They know Im aggressive, and they know were pushing forward, Yormark said of his Power Five Conference peers. 98, went to France expecting great things, but only France got great things. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. The distinction between points/play and plays/point is all about which it makes sense to average, or otherwise combine or consider when looking at a travesty on both sides of the ball. Smith isn't the only veteran backup who has succeeded as a starter early in the 2022 season. But they have already definitively lost the tiebreaker to New England thanks to losing both matchups, making it 14 straight wins for the Patriots in their series. On this week's Data Show, Aaron Schatz slightly re-worded Bill Parcells' famous quoteyou were what your record says you were. 6 defense in the league and their offense is almost up to league average! Rekindled interest by ESPN and Fox to open television contract negotiations. Our playoff odds currently give seven teams greater than a 95% chance to make the playoffs, but I'm going to set the Bills and 49ers aside for just one momentwe'll get back to them, and why I'm relatively bearish compared to our numbers. 1 team.Both Philadelphia and Buffalo dropped in DVOA -- the Eagles after a moderate win against a bad Texans team, and the Bills after a close loss to a good Jets team -- but the Bills dropped more than the Eagles so The Falcons have gone from 26th to third in pass block win rate and from 29th to 18th in run block win rate. Winning Week 18 is essentially necessary, if not sufficient, for Atlanta to make the postseason. It doesn't matter if your drive takes 5 plays or 16, so long as they all result in scores. But the Bills coughed up a big lead against the Vikings and a more modest one against the Jets, and they allowed the Packers to climb back into what looked like it was going to be an easy win. May not seem like it, but I have changed my views on many things through FO, including the infamous Gruden post. It doesn't matter if your drive takes 5 plays or 16, so long as they all result in scores. It would help if you could define consistently relevant, because the definition to meet the muster of that standard is get yourself a first ballot Hofer at QB or be the Ravens. In other news, welcome to the board, Mr. Schottenheimer! Their improvement on pass defense is as big as New York's, going from 35.1% pass defense DVOA in Weeks 1-4 to -20.6% in Weeks 5-9. Carlson:Why conference realignment may force Big 12 schools to make changes to Olympic sports, I was very comfortable with that narrative, that were going to be aggressive and thoughtful, Yormark said. Maybe - I have this niggling memory that real DVOA won't go much before 1980 due to lack of data, and anything else would basically be estimated DVOA. It sounds like teamseven the Lions, with their awful defensecan clamp down on Fields' scrambling to a degree if they have to. 29 schedule. I hated the game for its outcome, but that had some absolutely all-timer highlights. That being said, it's a pretty low bar for "relevant. Yet nothing you have cited is empirical as relates to the NFL. Cook had 18 for 94. A shelter in the time of storm. NFL Week 9 - The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles finally fly to the top of the DVOA mountain this week, passing the Buffalo Bills to reign as our new No. We can't be sure these trends will stick in a month from now -- since it is still early -- but through a month of games, we've seen some things worth exploring. The Panthers started rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen and got 2.4 yards per play with three turnovers. Every once in a while they start mixing in draws and delays out of shotgun - and those are the drives that actually work. There's only a 98.9% chance they win the division, despite literally having a clinching scenario this week! The Detroit-Jacksonville game on Sunday isn't an elimination game in the traditional sense, but the winner will be 5-7 and will get to appear on all of those "in the hunt" graphics for another week or two; the loser will be 4-8 and more or less out of things. Rekindled interest by ESPN and Fox to open television contract negotiations. But that's a topic for another day. Real Money purchase of 2 or 5 to get a Football Bet Bundle (5x1 or 5x2 bet tokens). It's All how you play the game. Bet tokens for selected markets only, expire 23:59 Sunday after purchase. If the Vikings had a record commiserate with their DVOA, the Lions would be right in the divisional race. In reply to Seems like if you wanted to by Aaron Brooks G, When I wondered if commenters would have my back or turn on me when I started writing for this website, this is admittedly not the form I thought it would take , Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. In 94 they had joy until Brazil rearranged their faces. We want to get the Big 12 on the consciousness of everyone., Tramel:2023 Big 12 football schedule still a mystery, but league can't just push a button. Again my blindspots. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. 1 team.Both Philadelphia and Buffalo dropped in DVOA -- the Eagles after a moderate win against a bad Texans team, and the Bills after a close loss to a good Jets team -- but the Bills dropped more than the Eagles so Our breaking political news keeps you covered on the latest in US politics, including Congress, state governors, and the White House. There's absolutely nothing in common between the 2000 Seahawks and the Russell Wilson Seahawks. A successful play is worth one point; an unsuccessful play, zero points with fractional points in between (e.g., eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 success points). This is the third game in five weeks that Taylor has missed with an ankle injury. Obviously, seeing Nathan Pederman is murder on your eyeballs, but if Patrick Mahomes is on the other side, hey, you mightcheerfor an interception if you want to see good offense. So we can just focus on these four. I'm not sure the Packers are prepared for Heinicke's style, even if there's plenty of film on him from last year. Age and wisdom have taught me that. You average the inverse because if one team's offense is moving at a pace of -30 EPA/game (dear God, it really was that bad) and another team's offense is moving at a pace of -10 EPA/game, that'sworse to watchthan a team going at -60 EPA/game and another team going at +20 EPA/game. The Chargers haven't shown enough for me to have faith in them to be almost a touchdown favorites against a Seahawks offense that has been able to hang around in games. Pro Football Reference began tracking bad throws and bad throw rates in 2018. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. The Vikings did the latter against the Cowboys, and it signaled that they aren't the buttoned-down, ball-control-and-execution team they claim to be. May as well go for the larger reward. 2 pass offense in the league by DVOA if you take out that Week 1 monsoon game. NFL Week 13 - With Thanksgiving come and gone, we enter the final act of the 2022 NFL season12 weeks gone, six weeks to go. Given that the underlying numbers are similar to past years, don't be surprised if scoring goes up in the next few weeks, before the inevitable decline in scoring that comes with bad weather games in December and January. We can disagree. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. I've said it on here before, but Allen is really missing Cole Beasley. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. That's the entire problem. Its the language that really connects everyone. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark discusses relationship with Texas and Oklahoma, Carlos Silva Jr., Lubbock Avalanche-Journal. Football fans around the world love to bet on football and see their team prevail, making the taste of the winning bet even sweeter when the full-time whistle blows. Having said all that, I'm obviously in the minority. So let's come at this from another angle. The Bengals aren't consistent enough for that to be a gimme by any stretch of the imagination, but all losing their hard games really does is take away their margin for error. The Seahawks move up a spot to No. And yes, that's largely due to Cordarrelle Patterson, but even without him they ran for 168 yards in last week's win over San Francisco. Just, you know, optimism for 2023 and beyond, not for a miracle run over the last six weeks. With Barkley rushing so well it's not surprising passing is doing well, considering they barely ever pass. Seattle currently pairs its No. The Dungy/Moore/Manning era Colts definitely took some heat in the media for continuing to pass in blowouts. The Bengals may be atop the group for now, but a one-game cushion can evaporate fast when your opponents are playing in two different leagues. The 3 hold overs are all playing much worse than in previous years. Legendary songwriter Mac Davis once penned that Happiness is Lubbock, Texas, in the rearview mirror.. But something being practicallyuntestabledoes not mean false. It may have sounded like I completely dismiss the organizational argument. In reply to I'd be curious to see how by theslothook. The Packers had exceptionally similar front office management/structure for 20+ years. Vincent Verhei: Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals. Seattle, our top-rated offense, has the second-lowest rating ever for a top offense after Week 5. The Jets' run defense has actually gotten worse over the last five weeks but the pass defense has been phenomenal, going from 19.3% DVOA in Weeks 1-4 to -29.9% DVOA in Weeks 5-9. Wouldn't expect that with Saquon Barkley back from the dead. But as much as I love delving into the depths of strength of victory and common games and massive, improbable upsets, we do have a fairly clear separation of wheat from chaff by this point in the season. Burrow had to do something for the entire second half of those games, so he threw lots of short passes to help move the chains. UK/ROI only. Washington's Jahan Dotson caught just two of eight targets for 10 yards. This is a line that continues to fall as we speak. We seem to be veering very far off from my main point which is being good does not guarantee you a super bowl. We have to. It is not hyperbole to say that this season has truly come from out of nowhere for Smith. I think it takes me longer and requires more variables to qualify as organizational compared to you, I am guessing. It's full of conjecture on how and why organizations matter. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. The passing game has been a little worse over the last month but the real issue for the Buccaneers has been defense, especially pass defense. At a certain point (10 years maybe? And the passions great, the commitment. Our breaking political news keeps you covered on the latest in US politics, including Congress, state governors, and the White House. Also, I think luck plays a bigger part in the outcomes than many would admit. Connect with the culture in a different way.. Faith is belief in the absence of evidence. Reread your earlier paragraphs. He still has special moments and can upgrade the players around him. I reached out to Ravens fans and posed this very same question. But 2007 and 2010 hurt more than the others cause joy, because they were the best team and SHOULD have won those years. The low yards per play show sustained incompetence. I hope we can move forward without acrimony. Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. So the Bills have run 42 times and passed 46 times (counting sacks) with a 14-point lead. Find all the latest real-time sports coverage, live reports, analysis and comment on Telegraph Sport. News, fixtures, scores and video. Denver and LV are "most disappointing" or close to it, The Browns are pretty much out of it this year unless something crazy happens and other QB traded got multiple people fired. Since 1967 (Bud Grant's first season), the Vikings have 9 seasons in which they were more than 1 game below .500 -- so seasons with no realistic playoff chance. So of course people have faith in the Broncos. There really aren't teams like the Marlins that come to mind, the way the salary cap and trade deadline and everything works makes it much tougher to truly do this in football. The equivalent of this has already been done with regards to the salary cap - it's one of the primary ways that economists looked at whether or not the changes from the '93 CBA had the effect that was desired, although not as detailed because it's a trivial show - team "inertia" was so insanely strong prior to the 1990s that talking about pre-cap/post-cap NFL years as the same league is a bit silly. Hurry back from the bye, Bills and Eagles. This is already a long post, but I think the source of our particular disagreement comes down to threshhold of classification. Its sort if captured in ST DVOA, but the penalty portion is almost totally hidden. I don't think he's cooked. Miami will get a chance to even the score with New York in Week 18, but that Bengals loss is a blotch they can't erase, and there are plenty of scenarios left where the Dolphins and Bengals end up tied for some seed. Of course you can't. That created an easy avenue for weaker opponents to stay in games that future opponents were likely to exploit. Late in the game, against most opponents, less is more. Latest breaking news, including politics, crime and celebrity. In reply to They scored 20, 27 and 24 by KnotMe. Not just two titles, but one of the greatest upsets in NFL history to boot. Most of us penciled the Falcons in as having one of the league's worst offenses for this season, and we figured the only things to watch for were Kyle Pitts racking up fantasy points and how long it would take for the team to pull Marcus Mariota and give rookie Desmond Ridder a shot under center. In reply to Yeah, that game was a by Ben. Outside of that Thanksgiving game against the Bills, there aren't many great offenses left on the table, so that whole "worst defense in the league" thing may adjust. White gets shot at redemption. And even then, as mentioned stuff can happen. Would make up for a bunch of such. Fields also has lots of scrambling production while the Bears trailed opponents by two scores in wild 'n' wooly games. Because the actual rules never apply to the Packers. But Yormark points out that Kansas certainly had a brand last weekend, with the Jayhawks hosting College GameDay on Campanile Hill, resulting in the highest ratings of the season for ESPNs pregame show. It's way way too early, but the undefeated Dolphins were both good, and had a soft schedule. And only 3 active/recently retired QBs will qualify per PFRs HoF monitor (Brady, Rodgers, Brees). They'resignificantly offfrom that. But there is no guarantee that it will happen. To get the right answer, you convert the speeds into hours per mile to get distance in the denominator, average those, and then invert back to miles per hour. Let's pick it anyway. As for the Bills, well, they may still have the best DVOA in the league and that signature win over Kansas City in their back pocket, but they're only 10th with a 15.3% DVOA over the past six weeks, dropping games to the Jets and Vikings along the way. Max 1 purchase per customer/week. In reply to The weather was fine. The Chiefs rank third-best on the road in DVOA, and I like them to convincingly win here against a Niners team that doesn't look complete to me. In reply to The all-time passing lists by mehnsrea. Crazy first seed. And why there is a whole discipline of microeconomics and why micro foundations are a thing in econ. Imagine if the 49ers had held onto their late lead in the NFC Championship Game. (Adams, Hill, Kahlil Mack, etc.) Situationally, he made the correct decision on both of the picks against the Packers. Ive heard that its possible to camouflage one bad o-lineman, but I think if there are 2 bad ones, youre sunk. If you use our DVOA Filter by Week tool, available to FO+ subscribers, you can see that only the Patriots have had a better average defensive DVOA over the past four weeks. The average is actually a little worse (-0.34 EPA/play) but again, if you think about it, that's not a fair comparison, because whenever Ehlinger got sacked and driven off the field, it was like "okay, the Patriots are awful, but, I mean they're notthaaatawful." Covering NFL since 2006 I, and other sickos like me, wouldn't want to live in a world where the Kyle Allen renaissance was utterly impossible! Maybe the Vikings were fortunate to come out on top against Buffalo, New Orleans, Washington, Chicago, and Arizona, but they did beat them. And the 49ers happen to be just 20th in defensive DVOA on third downs, compared to ranking first on first downs and second on second downs. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Economics warns about empirical work without theory. Nothing about offensive travesties indicates that plays per value is a better way to look at them. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? The power of Jimmy G! Seattle is 24th or worse in DVOA defending passes against WR1s (24th), WR2s (25th), tight ends (30th), and running backs (31st). This is a pretty solid matchup on one side of the ball, with Green Bays 10th-ranked offense clashing with Washingtons 11th-ranked defense. In reply to Says a Packers fan. In a mirror image of Ryan's old team in Atlanta, the Colts' decline is led in part by the decline of their offensive line. Great, because both the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gotten worse over the last few weeks. In reply to Well, how many consecutive by theslothook. Cousins is entering the leaderboard territory of real and near-Hall of Famers. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The Eagles have the best pass defense in the NFL on third-/fourth-and-long, with nine sacks, five interceptions, and a 42.9% completion rate allowed on 35 attempts But the Commanders demonstrated that opponents will rarely find themselves in third-and-long if they are willing to run on first and second downs. The good news is that underlying stat trends suggest even more success for the 49ers defense in the future. They have the third-highest odds of winning the bye week by our numbers, even if that's only at 2.9%. Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham likely gained 700-plus yards on scrambles in their scrambliest seasons. Even if one or two don't make the return, those are some much-needed reinforcements on both sides of the ball. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. I have personally witnessed worse teams get to the SB and can even name a team or two that I think looked worse coming into the playoffs that ended up actually winning. Marlon Tuipulotu won't be asked to play much, especially over the center. Going further, having lived in this data, almost any summary metric in the NFL IS non stationary. DVOA does measure the fourth bullet point - in fact, it's quite good at measuring these things. Russell by Bryan Knowles. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. 22nd-ranked remaining schedule, their -30-point differential is almost entirely from that shellacking by the Patriots, and this team will soon add Jameson Williams to a great wide receiver room. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The Vikings are sitting a -9.2%, the worst 9-2 team in DVOA history by a wide margin. You don't like it. Founder of Football Outsiders Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Sure. The defense has been an even bigger disappointment, ranking 26th so far. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; How D.J. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. Oh Will. A way-too-early look at the USMNT depth chart for 2026 World Cup. Join Betfair Now Love everything they're doing, the feel, the flavor, the direction., Then we give them 12 great choices to choose from.. In reply to I don't think he's in the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. What is the worst combined offensive performance in DVOA history? The 35,000-yard mark is a noteworthy accomplishment and a testament to the value of the sturdy "win with" quarterbacking we all love to denigrate. They have the fifth-easiest schedule remaining in the conference. Sothose two teams were worse (less efficient) than teams playing in horrible weather. By using the harmonic mean, this analysis in effect says that DVOA is the wrong way to evaluate a teams offense. I wrote below, I am open to knew ideas and for the record, absolutely no one should feel like the smartest person in the room. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 against FBS opponents, 5-0 We saved Justin Fields for last because That's not necessarily a givenwe give Seattle a 14.8% chance of taking the NFC West, a chance which almost necessitates beating the 49ers on Thursday in Week 15. Davis is turning into a bit of a "magic pill" for Philly fans. Really? The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Frankly, any time series regression on an n=20 sample is already suspect. Ian O'Connor: New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, Big 12 athletic directors have grown confident the new media contracts are expected to increase from where they were. College football was all about Kansas last Saturday Kansas! One final thought: Suh is a little like the defensive line version of Odell Beckham Jr. Im not sure longevity saves either guy. Gotta be the Saints. The Bengals, meanwhile, have that all-important head-to-head win over New York in their back pocket, plus a game against the Patriots on Christmas Eve to look forward to. What's the evidence that Fields will grow into Allen/Wilson level passer? Different strokes, I guess. It's about evaluating the totaloffense that you observe in a game. They've consistently been an afterthought to the Packers, and only barely above the Bears in terms of relevance. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? There's absolutely nothing in common between the 2000 Seahawks and the Russell Wilson Seahawks. The Florida climate scares me a bit, but I'm trusting Brian Daboll and the good vibes in New York East Rutherford to keep rolling. A win over Miami may not matter much for tiebreaker purposes or anything, but a big, signature win would do wonders for easing the minds of a fanbase that has had quite enough of being jerked up and down, thank you very much. However, we have one ring (tarnished as it may be) and they can't take that away. He will likely reach that milestone before halftime on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. The Vikings have been the best team in theirdivision11 times since 1980. & Support Mike Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . They also blew winnable games against Chicago, Atlanta, and Denver, so they're only 7-4 despite having faced the easiest schedule in the league to date. A fully healthy 49ers team wouldn't be three-point dogs at home against the Chiefs. Mike Tanier: New Orleans Saints. And besides, this is exactly the sort of team to believe in. The public and house are overreacting to the historically awful September Colts offense and have not gotten hip yet to the new, sorta-average Colts offense. Now, you may be thinking that Cousins might deserve Hall of Fame consideration if he indeed leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl win. If you get a two-score lead, your objective, imo, should be to turn it into a three score lead. In reply to The point is, successful by Pat. Nearly 12 percentage points separate the Colts from the No. Just autocorrelate team strength over longer periods with variables consisting of coaching changes and QB changes. Good times,and something to hope for!". Unless you believe that the genie will only grant you three wishes, in which case, sure, only use those wishes on high-leverage situations, but again, DVOA doesn't measure the magic genie. Top Waiver Adds Ken Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (45% rostered Yahoo / 47.5% rostered ESPN). But they don't affect the quarterback enough when they get pressure: Arizona is dead last allowing 6.3 yards per dropback when they pressure the quarterback. Five million in the red may not sound that bad, at least compared to the Saints at $67.5 million. Reader Makes Bengals a Postseason Threat; Derrik Klassen. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. While I agree with your sentiment about Shanahan that is really not a great example. Are the Bears food for a predator or victim to a sociopath? So it's interesting to see which teams have improved or declined dramatically since those first few games. Seems like if you wanted to eat someone, there would be no point in stomping on their throat first. Just like speaking of the GOAT is meaningless. So it's more like saying "I don't mind if my team hasn't won a Super Bowl yet if they're consistently the best team in their division." For this week, if the Commanders win, we give them an 83% chance to make the playoffs and the Giants just a 29% chance. I also believe bad organizations exist too. There is evidence that will happen. Again, you previously criticized someone for "thinking they're the smartest person in the room." Stafford's 2022 season did increase his Hall of Fame probability from about zero to maybe 10%; if he were leading another Rams charge this season, he would be mounting a more serious case. I would see it like a great vacation to an exotic place, or a fun but short-lived romance. In reply to While the "consistent by KnotMe. You have blind spots and you have strong and weak areas, like everyone else does. In reply to The Dungy/Moore/Manning era by takeleavebelieve. Football decimal odds are easy to understand, because they represent the payout you'll get if you win e.g. Cale Clinton:Detroit Lions. IRVING, Texas Brett Yormark walks into a conference room in Big 12 headquarters, not so many hours after a 4 a.m. wakeup call and 6 a.m. flight from New York City. In some sense you have to ask yourself "what does itmeanfor a game to have terrible offense?" But I'm counting on two things here: Gallup's existing rapport with Dak Prescott and the Lions' complete inability to slow down a passing offense (specifically, they rank dead last in DVOA against WR2s). Without the opponent adjustments, the Eagles would be over 40%. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is on the injured reserve with a knee injury. You have all your important characters and themes introduced in the first few weeks, like the Year of No Great Teams and The Year of No Offense. You can also think about it as "how quickly are these godawful offenses throwing away points?" The #Packers win 16 of them#SKOL, Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) November 28, 2022. Since 1967 (Bud Grant's by Pat. News, fixtures, scores and video. Also, if you think this is all organizational, care to make a prediction that the Packers next quarterback is going to be a Hall of famer? We go off our meds so you don't have to; The Philadelphia Eagles try to stave off an emergency on their run defense; The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams square off on the Boulevard of Broken Dreams; and. Just ask Minneso wait. Just ask any Seahawks fan about "should have run the ball". Once again, I really don't get why you're lumping together title runs separated by decades and talent. None of the receivers mentioned above are currently among the top 30 in targets. That's true, I certainly put them out of my mind quickly enough it seems. I lived through Philly over that same time period. I don't understand how the '70s dolphins winning titles has anything to do with Dan Marino not winning one. Its winning field position. NFL Week 13 - With Thanksgiving come and gone, we enter the final act of the 2022 NFL season12 weeks gone, six weeks to go.Say what you will about the NFL's current schedulethe fact that teams can't finish .500 anymore; the imbalanced number of home and away games; the bizarre, bizarre scheduling choices which means that some teams still haven't Complex, a New York media and entertainment company centering on youth culture, style, sneakers, food, music and sports, is profiling the Big 12 for its magazine. They should be getting some guys back on offense and I'd expect the defense to return to form. And when it doesn't work, it's explained post hoc. I'll say this again, more clearly:this analysis is not about evaluating a team's offense. They play everyone close despite an offense gutted by injuries. However, three different teams did it last year. Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren formed an alliance with the Pac-12 and Atlantic Coast Conference, then took Southern Cal and UCLA from the Pac. In reply to Have you seen the other 2-4 teams? In reply to I agree, you can't really do by theslothook. You're simply criticizing someone else fornothaving evidence, which isnot a valid criticism of a hypothesis. You can hear it, right? Cale Clinton: Washington Commanders (+5) vs. the Green Bay Packers. Ian O'Connor: New Orleans Saints. (Two of those interceptions were from backup Matt Moore, who replaced Clausen when the game was out of reach late.) The point is, successful teams get a window of time. & Support Mike Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Over in the NFC, the Eagles keep on cruising at 10-1, with the Vikings, 49ers, and Buccaneers also sitting on top of their divisions. Chris Chandler threw two picks and got benched for Jeff Carlson, who came in and threw three more picks with five sacks. Ryan, Roethlisberger, and Rivers are just below the cutoff. Those networks declined an opportunity for such talks 18 months ago, prompting OU and Texas to reach out to the SEC. I could not disagree more, and this is where we've disagreed many times over. Joseph, Suh, and Fletcher Cox each playing 30 or 40 snaps per game should give them fresh legs at defensive tackle whenever they need them. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. Until this year, the Vikings team I hated the most, since the first year I paid attention to them, as a wee lad in 1969. In reply to Allen seems as likely to be by Will Allen. Easy to say when you have TWO Super Bowl wins this century. News, fixtures, scores and video. OSU and Baylor made the Big 12 Championship Game last season, and upstarts like TCU and Kansas State seem intent on doing the same this year. I'm guessing you are in the minority of fans with this line of thinking. The early returns on Yormarks three months in Las Colinas have been strong. College football was all about Kansas last Saturday Kansas! Being consistently relevantwill get youa title. The Big 12 youve seen all these years is about to look much different, and I dont mean just because BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida are coming on board. Governments, academia, research projects, they all have massive inertia. And now, as in any good Act III, we're about to start racking up a body count. Join Betfair Now We have two groups that mostly don't interact in the NFC, thanks to the weakness of the South compared to the other three divisions. Instead he said, "Welcome to my first sleepless night of the year". What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? It would be fun if he did. I've also met Raiders fans who cherish the 80s and it gets them through any prolonged drought. Football fans around the world love to bet on football and see their team prevail, making the taste of the winning bet even sweeter when the full-time whistle blows. Here's the list of 8-0 teams going back to 1981, and where the Eagles fall among those teams: The biggest shock to me in this entire piece is that there was an epically bad offensive game in 1992 and it somehow did NOT involve the Seahawks! So then the tactic that opponents (see the Dallas game) took was to just run hurry-up when Philly's in the nickel under front when he's off the field, andwheeeewatch the disaster. 61 of your 125 passing yards came on the final drive of the game, with the Panthers playing prevent the whole way. NFL Week 13 - With Thanksgiving come and gone, we enter the final act of the 2022 NFL season12 weeks gone, six weeks to go.Say what you will about the NFL's current schedulethe fact that teams can't finish .500 anymore; the imbalanced number of home and away games; the bizarre, bizarre scheduling choices which means that some teams still haven't Real Money purchase of 2 or 5 to get a Football Bet Bundle (5x1 or 5x2 bet tokens). Nothing. The problem for the Falcons? That's very close to the overall NFL run rate in every situation. None of that is set in stone, however, with even those 10-1 Eagles still technically able to be sent to their couches before the playoffs begin. 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