USC was going to the College Football Playoff. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. Arizona is 7-5 O/U overall, with a 4-2 O/U count at home. Georgia beat Michigan and then Alabama in the 2021-22 CFP Championship last year. QBR takes that out, while DVOA/DYAR does not. No. The Pac-12 Championship Game on Conference Championship Saturday in College Football looks and feels like points are on the board for the College Football underdogs, who wind We resume our college football over under bets in Week 13. Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz tweeted earlier this week that New York's playoff odds would jump from 50% to 73% if the Giants claimed a Week 13 victory. I've been having trouble getting to the site recently, don't know if it has been on my end or theirs, but it wouldn't shock me if comments are down the last few days. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns' odds of making the playoffs are up from 2.7 percent a week ago to 4.4 percent today. The Bears got a bump in their odds (+5.8%) after the victory over the Lions on Sunday. Fields ate them for lunch on 3rd down scrambles, and Allen is likely to do the same in their upcoming games against BUF, both of which they'll likely be trounced in. Sound about right. The Wolverines should be too physical for TCU. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. The Chargers have also played the easiest schedule of run defenses so far. Required fields are marked *. The Trojans were +1000 to win the college football championship going into the Pac-12 Championship Game. But other teams do see their schedule of run defenses get much easier. 1 Georgia will look to defend its national championship against No. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the mean DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. pic.twitter.com/O0hrpCxIDx. (Could be faulty memory, but sure feels like the weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by now! That's a little better than a 1/17 shot. Blake Corum is not playing, but Edwards should run the distance. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there. This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents. That's up from 25.2% last week. As in, the number one -- the number of wins the Patriots have over the Broncos to give them an edge to land the top seed in the . NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. Updated Football Outsiders playoff odds! Michigan won The Game in a laugher by a score of 45-23. Max Duggan and the TCU are capable of moving the ball. Again, Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers will play a big role in the college football championship. We have the best defenses and offensive lines in college football if this is the matchup. If Williams does not pull his hamstring, does USC win that game? The Patriots for this game: -10% offense, -60% defense, +10% special teams. New England enters Week 14 with a 5-7 O/U mark on the year, including 3-3 O/U on the road. This is the playoffs, though, and everyone is even now. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. Per Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh has just a 1% chance of claiming a division title and a 6.1% shot at making the playoffs. In fact, the Cowboys are now No. BACK-TO-BACK.No. pic.twitter.com/YKBLpG8oJn. The Zimmer teams made decent runs in 17 and 19, but faded as the talent on the defence got old. Betting analyst Brandon Anderson makes his early picks for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs below. It would be so funny if they inverted their start: losing games but winning by DVOA, gradually improving their DVOA as the losses pile up until they're like 14th with a 9-8 record. The casino will be rebranded as Golden Nugget Hotel Want to stay up to date on all of the latest blogs, news, and Picks on The Sports Geek? They had better National Championship odds than USC, who was not considered a CFP team according to those odds. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Stroud and the Buckeyes were unable to move the ball and I cant see TCU figuring it out. Saints vs. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. But, for the tippy-top of the league . The one team they play which is significantly better against the pass is Denver in Week 18 (4/18), which won't matter if you have Justin Herbert or Austin Ekeler in the fantasy playoffs. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense. Worcester, MA. Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 46.3% chance of securing the No. If you like Georgia, getting on them now before the Peach Bowl is advised. The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the . trusting the scheme got them open) and the receiver wasn't there for various reasons (wrong option break, route a bit sloppier and hence slower). That puts them ahead of playoff hopeful teams like the Commanders (17th . Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Ohio State vs. Georgia Prediction: 38-28 Georgia Bulldogs. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice but recovered both. I watched large parts of it and it felt pretty horrible. And yet the Buckeyes are a one-touchdown dog. Georgia should advance for their second straight appearance in the National Championship. Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. Currently, Football Outsiders sees the Bucs making the playoffs at a 52 percent chance. This year Georgia has a target on their backs going into New Years Eve. ), In reply to Got to love FO (not being by BlueStarDude. Likeliest foe in the first playoff game? Defense is similar, 11th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA. "The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year.". Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 73.1% chance to win the division. A key AFC East divisional clash will unfold on Sunday of NFL Week 14 action MONEYLINE -150ODDS OUR PICK PORTUGAL PLACE BET! Rodgers has also flat out missed the throw on several broken plays where a receiver has worked themselves open too. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. It is your responsibility to verify such matters and to know and follow your local laws. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. The USC defense was embarrassing, but we think so. While not astronomical, those odds are, at least, not zero. The public does not have much faith in TCU following their 31-28 loss in the Big 12 Championship Game. Coach Sonny Dykes is one of the most innovative in college football, and a month to look at this Michigan team after grinding it out for two months will undoubtedly serve him well. Founder of Football Outsiders I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. However, who else should be the No. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. After selecting Georgia at +215 two months ago, we have been too right to jump off the ship now. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders). 3 TCU will tee it up in Glendale, Arizona, in the Fiesta Bowl. Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. Should make an exciting race. Some of it is opponent-adjustment boosts. As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. The most well-rounded teams this season have been Georgia and Michigan. The playoffs will expand to a 12-team format beginning in 2024-25. The Chargers have played the easiest schedule of pass defenses so far, averaging 11.1% DVOA. The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings . Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews), Reaching the Conference Championship Game. The Minnesota Vikings are dominating the NFC North and they can clinch the division title in Week 14 with a win or tie. Are the writers over 50 years old and still living the days of early 90s? The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) visit the Detroit Lions (5-7) on Sunday. Can TCU get this done and pull off a big upset? They should have an answer for the Horned Frogs from both angles through the air and ground. Aaron and Mike are joined by Connor Rogers from SNY.tv & NBC Sports to go in-depth on the New York Jets and their Week 14 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. Three games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, but one of them will not be obvious. Not hard to imagine the Giants losing out the rest of the way with their schedule, but I can imagine the Lions at 8-9. However, this offense has not played a unit like the Wolverines. Smith-Njigba will not be participating, though. While the playoffs are still technically possible I gave up on making it after the Tennessee loss. The four-team College Football Playoff field is set, and it features three superpowers plus one upstart program that is finally getting its chance. TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. It is worth mentioning that this is the second last season with a four-team College Football Playoff. It would have been an entertaining 4th quarter, with Williams likely pulling more magic out of his hat. NCAA Conference Championship - The big news we've expected for a while is now official, as college football's FBS level is going to a 12-team playoff beginning with the 2024 season. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. They also have the Vikings with a 42.2 percent chance of getting. Odds as of 1:10 p.m. on 12/03/2022. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. It was another winning effort last week. Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. As a result of the loss, Ohio State is on the College Football Playoff odds board. 1:54 pm ET, College football bowl odds, picks, computer sims, 2022-23 bowl confidence pool picks, predictions, Top bowl confidence pool picks, predictions for 2022-23, USC QB Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Eli Drinkwitz trolls Kansas over NCAA investigation, 2022 CFP odds: Georgia, Michigan open as favorites, USC's Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Stanford hires Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor, Bobby Petrino emerging as candidate for TAMU OC job, Michigan mourns death of honoree Dametrius Walker, Report: WAC, ASUN merge in attempt to form FBS league, 2022 awards: USC's Caleb Williams shines as big winner, Rueben Owens, No. Yikes. If you suck at drafting, there's little point to tearing it down. Certainly not the Alabama Crimson Tide. It should go without saying that Tomlin would scoff at Football Outsiders' futile attempts at calculating playoff odds two games into the season, and nobody would judge you if you chose to do so . 2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS | Football Outsiders NFL Playoff Odds www.footballoutsiders.com Last edited: Nov 16, 2020 9 Nightshade and 6 others Nov 16, 2020 #2 Saint Spud Hall-of-Famer Joined Mar 6, 2002 Messages 12,030 Reaction score 29,035 Age 43 Online Our defense is balling right now. Odell Beckham Jr. during his free agency visit with the Dallas Cowboys. 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the importance of early-season games. The Trojans were in control with a 17-3 before Williams came up lame and limping. Your email address will not be published. Notice that three of them made it to the Super Bowl! I'm shocked that the Patriots get 60% DVOA for their game against the Jets. In fact, the losers of these games may have moved down even more than the winners moved up. It may happen with the easier schedule. Got to love FO (not being sarcastic). The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. They can't blame that on Cooper Rush; that was Dak Prescott starting in that game. 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. We have new, innovative methods for analyzing skill players, offensive and defensive lines, special teams, and total team efficiency. The Horned Frogs are +7.5 underdogs in the semifinals, and then would be underdogs against Ohio State or Georgia. One other victory that might be a bit larger than expected belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Denver 22-16 in overtime. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Buccaneers Week 13 picks 2? All college football betting odds for Clemson vs North Carolina can be found at B ovada Sportsbook.. Moneyline: CLEM: (-280) | UNC: (+230) Point Spread: CLEM: -7.5 (-110) | UNC: +7.5 (-110) Total: 63.5 Over: (-110) | Under: (-110) College Football FEI Ratings. Stetson Bennett should have his usual steady performance. section: | slug: 2022-college-football-playoff-odds-games-lines-georgia-and-michigan-open-as-favorites-in-semifinals | sport: collegefootball | route: article_single.us | The talent is there for the Buckeyes, but perhaps more importantly, they'll have a month off to prepare and get healthy -- particularly at running back. Ohio State was listed as the third favorite to win the College Football Playoff before the Pac-12 Championship Game at +800. However, the Buckeyes can still win the biggest prize of all in the College Football Playoff. I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. Sitting at 5-7 on the season with the . 28 schedule the rest of the way, much easier. They are at +350 to beat Georgia and then their next opponent in the championship game. Check out our Saints vs. Let it fly #GoDawgs | #SECChampionship pic.twitter.com/jrGqneuPg1. 5. Take an offense that relies on the more time consuming run, and a defense that can't stop the time consuming run and you get this team. 3 TCU. Until then, the Vikings deserve to be lampooned as the ultimate paper tiger, In reply to It would be so funny if they by riri. Did DVOA see the Patriots' performance as a massive defensive tour de force? But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. In reply to Detroit has climbed into the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. The company is planning a massive billion-dollar renovation of Station Casinos has acquired a 67-acre land at Losee Road with plans to build a new casino resort. Sign up for our news letter today! While the shape of the playoff race has been clear for some time, we still don't actually know any single team will actually be playing football in late January; historic collapses are still possible, if not exactly probable. December 5, 2022 6:09 pm ET. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. About these numbers: Each week, from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the projected playoff field based on the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that . There's a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. Buccaneers Week 13 picks for Monday Night Football on December 5. That said, Tampa Bay's playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. That will generate the new narrative. Last week, FiveThirty pegged Minnesota as the NFL's 10th-best team. The run game has been very good at times though, just not always used in the best situations so it doesn't help win chances. Filtering by Week 11 LAR WRs yielded no results. TCU is off the map on the College Football Playoff odds board at +1600. The beatings will continue until Minnesota's DVOA improves. All they had to do was beat the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship. Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan. 2022 NFL MVP odds: Jalen Hurts on Patrick Mahomes' heels; Joe Burrow moves up to No. It's not that different from other LaFleur years, it's just missing that pass catcher(s) who gets open enough for the occasional shot play that can get them to/into the end zone. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. At least if you look at it from the College Football Playoff odds before the conference championships. And a good thing it is for NE, too, as their offense continues to struggle with the impenetrable barrier that is the opponent's 30-yard line. So far, the Texans' schedule of opposing offenses has ranked 26th. The College Football Playoff odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as the favorites to win. On the other hand, the Arizona Cardinals have had it easy so far with the No. The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. They can look better than they are. Without that game, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which would rank seventh in the league. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Vikings dominating the fluky 8-2 teams - I knew this seemed so familiar. For the rest of the season, the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! The Patriots had 60.1% DVOA for this game. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. The Raiders move up one spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three spots from 22nd to 25th. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. As for this division, the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation actually has Seattle as a small favorite to win the NFC West right now, so I'm definitely not taking the 49ers at -220. NFC playoff clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 14 December football brings division and playoff-clinching scenarios for some teams and elimination scenarios for others. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. According to Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Report, the Broncos now have less than a 20% chance to make the postseason. Their backs are against the wall. Today's episode highlights Kyle Shanahan having a winning record for the first . Aaron and Mike will then wrap up with a quick preview of Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Lions, Buccaneers-49ers, and Dolphins-Chargers. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? 6-keys: media/spln/collegefootball/reg/free/stories, at Add to that the org cut 3 3rd rounders from 2021 draft already. That's because their offense was so bad in Week 1. *Football Outsiders simulations have the Vikings slated for 12.1 victories this season better than any other team in the NFL. It was the same this year in 2022 at home. Sports betting and gambling laws vary by jurisdiction. Football Outsiders' model is less bullish on the Chargers, giving them a 16.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, down from 29.7 percent heading into Week 13. BetMGM books are reporting 73% of bets and 89% . NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). The reigning national champions have been a machine all season long, finishing off their run with a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game. In the first game, he put up some big plays with his legs. The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. How many do they have to lose before we can stop making those lists? Clemson vs North Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. TCU vs. Michigan Prediction: 35-20 Michigan Wolverines. If we leave out the Broncos in Week 18, the Chargers have the hardest remaining schedule of opposing run defenses. Tennessee DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Ryan Tannehill. Lets get into the College Football Playoff odds and our College Football Playoff predictions at TheSportsGeek. Cowboys Doubt Odell Beckham Will Play in 2022. Here are the division odds from Football Outsiders: 49ers: 51.2 percent Rams: 25.8 percent Seahawks: 20.1 percent Cardinals: 2.9 percent If they get healthy down the stretch the 49ers are the. The 97 team had a miracle win against the Giants in the playoffs, and then got pounded the next week in SF (the Viking way after every miracle - immediately squash any sense of hope a fan might have). Then finishing with 3 wins gets us back to 95%. NE's D, though, seems tuned to take on pocket passers, not mobile guys. 1. Our friends at DraftKings have the Seahawks at 12th most likely to win, which seems to be the current. The Cincinnati Bengals have by far the hardest remaining schedule, followed by the Bears and Jaguars. Cousins is exactly the type of QB this year's Pats defense is eating alive. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). In reply to "The New York Jets have by wooten1283. The Jets drop from ninth to 13th. Yet their schedule of pass defenses gets even easier the rest of the way -- if we don't include their Week 18 game with Denver. However, the biggest concern for TCU has to be how to stop Donovan Edwards. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the Peach Bowl.If you ask anyone outside of the Ohio State sphere what . The Miami Dolphins will look to keep pace in a tight AFC East divisional race -9.5SPREAD +100ODDS OUR PICK BILLS PLACE BET! It is the first playoff for the TCU Horned Frogs. The Football Outsiders playoff odds report thinks they have a 5.9% chance of making the playoffs. NFL Week 14 - With five weeks to go, all 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. Here are the Packers' playoff odds from various sites: FiveThirtyEight: 6 percent Football Outsiders: 8.6 percent New York Times: 11 percent ESPN FPI: 5.0 percent Playoff Status: 3.0. The Chargers' schedule is even more fun when you look at the offenses they face. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. We are not able to verify the legality of the information we provide, or your ability to use any sites that are linked to on this site, for every combination of your location, the sites location, and the type of service those sites provide. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. With 7 games remaining, can they hold off GB and catch MIN for the NFC North title? Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. December 06, 4:02 pm ET. The Losee project would Baker Mayfield delivered a performance for the ages on Thursday, two days after he joined the Los Angeles Rams. I did not expect the gap to be THAT big. The Raiders had 44.0% DVOA for the win, and the Broncos had -58.5% DVOA for the loss. NFL Week 13 - There aren't many weeks left of the fantasy season, but now isn't the time to switch off. Georgia survives, but the Wolverines will be ready to play this time. The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. The biggest change other than the Chargers belongs to the Houston Texans. In reply to A better question would be by KnotMe. (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. The Vikings have played the No. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for NFL Week 14! That produces playoff odds and Super Bowl . This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. I think this team has a floor of 2-4 to finish the season and a ceiling of 6-0. Bills at Patriots Thursday Night - NFL betting odds, picks, tips Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) and New England. The Vikings are on the verge of a playoff berth. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . There was some hope that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would return for the College Football Playoff. 1 seed. Michigan is rated highly in the secondary and at the line against the run. It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a . . They are coming off a win in the underdog role over the Alabama Crimson Tide last year. Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan. The Pats spied him in the second and he went nowhere. TCU does not have a defense that competes with the other three teams. 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. Click here for the full table. The 12 teams each year will include six conference champions -- that means at least one Group of 5 team gets in -- and then the next six at-large teams. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes are traditional powers that spent the majority of the season in the top four, and they have two of the best rosters in the country. It was revealed that Williams suffered a severe hamstring. The quarterbacks are fine and close to the same level. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. I bought into the LaFleur scheme enough that I thought something like that "hot receiver rotation" could happen, and that this year's schedule was soft enough that they would still be in the 11-13 win range. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. However, the College Football Playoff committee avoided a major controversy by denying the Crimson Tide. Their overall playoff chances dipped 2.5 percent, but they're still in very good shape according to the Football Outsiders table: Playoffs: 93.4 percent Division: 76.6 percent Wild Card:. The schedule of the toughest run defenses and 3rd toughest pass defenses was way harder than I thought and the psychology of players may have lead to some snowballing effects. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would move from 14th to seventh in DVOA. Surprise tournament quarter-finalists Morocco will look to continue their impressive streak as they take on Come check out tonight's game as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Dallas Mavericks! We look at all these odds with the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. In reply to Why would writers being by greybeard. This comes with one last game before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2 . To best of knowledge you are the only 49ers fan at FO staff. It's also interesting to note that the Eagles no longer have the easiest schedule in the division; the Cowboys' remaining schedule is easier than Philadelphia's by average DVOA of opponent. The Cardinals drop from 29th to 31st. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Lions prediction and pick. This is not a paywall*! We went over the Chargers already but a number of other teams see their schedule of opposing run defenses get much harder from here on out. (Before Nov. 1, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) Ohio State has a tough matchup in the semifinals against Georgia. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Interestingly, the fringe AFC teams have future schedules in the exact inverse order of their DVOA rankings. There are not too many differences between Georgia and Michigan, but the Bulldogs do everything just a bit better than the Wolverines. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Other teams with easy schedules for their defenses the rest of the way include the Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, and, as noted above, Chargers. Another big winner for Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys, with 73.5% DVOA for a 40-3 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings. The Wolverines have the easier matchup in the semifinals against TCU. Your email address will not be published. In reply to Worst 8-2 Teams by Jimmytossinbeachble. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. Current SB favorites: #BillsMafia 24.5% #FlyEaglesFly 19.8% #RavensFlock 9.4% #GoBucs 7.3% #ChiefsKingdom 6.6% #GoPackGo 5.1% #DallasCowboys 4.1%. The FINAL top-25 CFP rankings Where did your team land? They do this every week, and they arrive at the projections by running the season 10,000 times. FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 13 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the second most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. Our AI predicts that the Dallas Mavericks will Come check out tonight's game as the Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Utah Jazz! Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 after beating the Iowa Hawkeyes for the Big Ten Championship. In reply to Keep in mind, the steadiest by Aaron Brooks G. They. 5 schedule of opposing offenses so far. It's possible that the Jets just had a bad game and only scored 3 points (and two yards of net offense in the second half) despite averaging 20 points a game. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. It looks like Week 11 snap count data may have been added for SF/ARI, but not other games: Detroit has climbed into the top half of the league by DVOA! Michigan should make it more competitive than a 34-11 loss in their semifinals meeting last New Year's Eve. However, it's also possible to split up remaining schedules by offense and defense or pass and run to see which teams and units might look better or worse over the rest of the season thanks to who's on the other side of the field. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. That starts with the Chiefs (2 so far, 23 to go) but also the Rams (6 so far, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 so far, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 so far, 28 to go). 8 in the league with a team DVOA of. AFC playoff projections 1. The last time we saw them, they were chased off the field at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Our AI predicts that the Utah Jazz will Lakers title odds improve as the team is starting to play better. 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