Yes, they clobbered the Patriots in their one playoff win. Playoffs? For starters, this prediction is neither bold or outside of the box, considering its been recycled time and time again this offseason. I think there's pretty good odds McCarthy is not the coach of the Cowboys next season, but I don't think he's let go in the middle of the year. Also, it's Matt Rhule. Bryan: You have also been going around talking about your favorite bird team to reach the Super Bowl as well, drawing shock and surprise as you go. Spread: Raiders -6.5 (-110) vs. Rams +6.5 (-110), Moneyline: Raiders (-305) vs. Rams (+240), Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110). Tyreke all along! Jacksonville can lean on one of their defensive strengths in this game: the Jaguars have four straight games with a negative rushing DVOA as Derrick Henry comes inoff a string of poor performances. Daniel Jones can't come back to somewhere he never was. McCarthy perhaps follows suit and its the Kellen Moore show. The challenge is going to be Brissett doing better than 4-7; I do think despite the hard AFC, everyone is going to beat each other up enough to make the WCs middling in record. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. I don't actually like any of the big underdogs to win this week, but I have been riding Jacksonville since the preseason, so I'll stick with them. I don't deny Zim had flaws, but those all get masked or magnified by context independent of the coach. Carl Yedor: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. Cale Clinton: New York Jets (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills. They're a good, logical pick for best value. In reply to AP won because of a by theslothook. Aaron: I still think a rookie quarterback is the best pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, barring some kind of crazy season like what Ja'Marr Chase did in 2021. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750) If he has a strong season and the Saints do as well as Football Outsiders is predicting, he should be a shoo-in. Akers is now not only sharing touches with Williams but also WRs Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 68 yards on seven attempts in Week 13. Instead, I'm going with Kirk Cousins. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. 2019: 30.0% But I'm still not seeing why they should be Super Bowl favorites. In all seriousness, I would pick Kupp and Donald as favourites, the Rams as the value pick for SB winner, and Robinson as the value pick for comeback player of the year. One less game does everything. The bruising running back has anchored a methodical Las Vegas playbook that is chewing up clock and controlling possession during the winning streak. surely? Heading into the weekend, DraftKings was reporting 64% of the bet count on the home favorite, but 54% of money riding on the Saints. [the Charger GM {whomever he is; I'm lazy} of course]), In reply to skin in the game by BigRichie. Says something about bettors, methinks. Agree, it's probably best to think of it in absolute odds. Bryan: I'll get to Pickett soon enough, have no fear, but for my best bet, I want someone who is starting from Week 1. In reply to There's no Exec pick because by Bryan Knowles. In reply to The one other ridiculous pick by BigRichie. As for the Mayfield pickup, the acquisition of the much-maligned QB barely made a blip in the betting markets. Los Angeles +6 saw minor shuffling of the vig and you could make the argument that giving Mayfield reps on a short week in this system would actually be detrimental to L.A., considering Wofford and Perkins at least know the playbook. Aaron: Voters like numbers when it comes to defensive players, and linebackers get numbers. No one expects much from the Panthers, so unless they start out 0-6 or something, I think he should be fine. It can go away for the Chargers too. Aaron Schatz: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers. Looking first at wide receivers in 2021, a Lion made the top-20 in YAC+. Those are still super long odds so the MVP remains a QB only reward. He's coming back from being a rookie? And this line has swung FIVE points in the direction of the Lions since the books opened, which should tell you that Vegas wins big if the Vikings win. The NFC North battle will also likely be played at a blistering pace. Plus, I think there's real "bottom falls out" potential on this team; it's entirely possible their collapse starts before Halloween this time around. But with Sean Payton theoretically available next year, and Dan Quinn getting more out of lesser players on the defense than Moore and McCarthy could with better players on offense, I'm not convinced he'd be the one to replace McCarthy. After things got chippy between these teams in Week 2, New Orleans heads to Tampa to seek revenge on the Bucs. I know the Tyron Smith injury has everybody spooked right now, and it certainly introduces a lot more uncertainty into the team, but he was hurt last year as well and they scuffled their way through. You know, so he can lose to a better quarterback such as Josh Allen or Justin Herbert or even Patrick Mahomes. I mean, we don't just have the Eagles on top of the NFC East. Ah but what if KC is the kind of defense where teams will not chance a pressure or a sack on long yardage. In reply to From the numbers above, he's by theslothook. Sportswriters spend the entire season talking about the MVP award. Somewhat shockingly, that's Dameon Pierce, the fourth-round pick out of Florida who has just blown Texans camp away, to the point where Houston started holding him out of preseason games because they had honestly seen enough. The games total is 51.5 points, and the spread is only 2.0 points. For years, the only player who had ever picked up a thousand yards rushing and receiving in the same year was Roger Craig, who happened to play for my favorite team when I was a kid. Hardly any discussion of defense much less special teams. One big win fueled by passing, one close loss, then a throttling by the Buffalo Bills. I think they're getting undervalued because of underestimation of just how badly all the injuries hurt them last season. That effort prompted oddsmakers to set Akers rushing yards total at 45.5 for Thursday night a tempting Over considering his increase in carries and the fact Akers has gone for totals of 61 and 60 yards in two of his last three contests. Double your odds! And then for Garrett. See what changes the Buffalo Bills made to their roster this past off-season along with predictions on their best and worst case As for O'Connell versus Staley, I think you're right if both teams end up as rough equals. Unless Baker Mayfield has the year of his life, it's hard to see Rhule making it back for 2023, and very, very easy to see a change happening at the bye week. Uh, the "nobody believes in us" card is fair, just as it was more or less considered fair for Roethlisberger's crew during the '10 season where they made the SB. Last year their 13-4 team only had the tenth best point differential. So I can bet on the coin flip, but not Exec of the Year. Garoppolo was 10th in Football Outsiders DYAR (total value) metric in 2021 higher than [Josh] Allen, [Joe] Burrow andRussell Wilson. The Rams are missing their starting QB, all-world WR in Cooper Kupp, and defensive motor in Aaron Donald. We noticed your adblocker is on. Those intermediate middle passes that Tua Tagovailoa loves so much? I'm saving them for my longshot pick. I think Lamar Jackson is still an MVP-caliber player, and even if the receiver corps isn't world-class, the rushing attack and Jackson's dual-threat abilities make them one of the hardest teams to game-plan against. By contrast, if Dallas stumbles to 2-4 or 2-8 by midseason, I could see McCarthy getting the axe. I think that's where the ethics come in. When you have no actual skin in the game, you're inclined to ignore the obvious. I'll go with Nick Bosa! And maybe the Jaguars go 9-8 and sneak into a division title. Sometimes, gambling advice is I also think Payton is firmly in veteran experienced retread territory now, rather than young/innovative (not that that is necessarily a bad thing). Bryan: I feel like I owe it to the city of Buffalo to pick the Bills as my favorites, after not giving the K-Gun era Bills credit for being the best heartbreak dynasty of all time this offseason. That combination of outcomes occurs in <0.25% of simulations. Much as I hate to say it, the Browns are probably the best long shot SB pick. So I too will go with Brandon Staley as my favorite here. the North". 2 seed (in spite of their relatively poor DVOA) because they have banked so many wins. However, there are multiple factors working against Akers entering this short week that have me betting the Under 45.5 yards, as I believe this Over/Under is a bit of an overreaction to Sundays showing. Pickens / Breece / Skylar Thompson (a very long shot), You previously said that you predicted the Eagles would win the Super Bowl, now youre going with the Bills, - hes famous enough for it. (maybe about how much they drink while betting), (2 ridiculous picks isn't bad at all when making this many picks). WebDVOA Analysis Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers. Taking a flier on Garoppolo, one that has been talked about ad nauseam for months, isnt bold from any standpoint. Bryan: Lance did at least have a hurt thumb for a couple weeks. Similarly, if the Colts were fighting for a 1 or 2 seed, I think Taylor would probably win MVP. The Bucs offense gets a lift from the home field, most notably the pass game which could have Tampa inside field goal range more often on Monday night. Las Vegas does a good job slowing down the run, ranked out No. Not sure how you could get a perception that Taylor was carrying the colts for instance unless he puts up historic numbers. They have a top-seven projection on both offense and defense! Jackson Roberts: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). Plus the larger organization. Bryan: I'll side with your Vikings optimism here for my longshot. Add in the chaos that comes from Thursday games and well, you never know, do you? Cam Akers has returned from the wilderness as the Rams' clear RB1 but has a tough matchup on TNF against a revitalized Raiders defense. Overall, Akers is rushing for a little over four yards per carry in the past three games and runs behind the worst offensive line, in terms of Football Outsiders adjusted line yards. The Rams have punted on the season, but can they be frisky in this game? I think he has higher quality players around him as a pass-rusherwhile San Francisco's depth is fantastic, they don't have someone like Khalil Mack to draw blockers away from Nick. Bryan: It has been 10 years since a non-quarterback won MVP, when Adrian Peterson rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2012. It never feels good to pick the favorite in a value conversation, but 2:1 feels awfully fair for the team most likely to earn the bye and would therefore need only two wins to cash this bet, while the others would all require three. In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. With slightly better odds than Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year, that makes Jefferson my best value. Of course it's Matt Rhule; it has to be Matt Rhule. If Henry had put up a 1600 + yard season, even on just ok efficiency, I think he wins MVP. It was definitely looking like Moore was being groomed to assume the head coach role at some point. It's Rhule. The lookahead line, before the events of Week 12, had this spread set at Tampa Bay -6.5. Copyright 1995 - 2022 Opt-In Now, B) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! You had Nick Bosa as your best bet for the most sacks yesterday; I had Cameron Jordan in the same spot. Other than Womack, at any rate. The Cardinals have had a negative DVOA in six of their last seven games. DraftKings is reporting 59% of bets on the Over and 62% of money banking on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday. A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing DVOA at Football Outsiders. The flip side is that Zimmer WAS one fine defensive coach. Totally agree with Carl on the value part. AP won because of a confluence of factors, including a historic season + a comeback off injury story where people had left him for dead + Manning and Brady stole from one another. Aaron: Duh. Adams did amazing things as a Packer. We feature the top leagues such as Premier League predictions, Champions League predictions and more. They're in a dead heat with the Cowboys for best team in the NFC, both by our numbers and by general perception, and we give them an 80% chance of earning the bye and home field, both of which are huge in this sort of thing. So they get the jump on the other losing teams, becoming the first franchise to fire their head coach on Black Monday. The Bucs' offense runs a much faster pace than the Saints, sitting tops in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Top 10 in plays per game. Many sports bettors know the long and lonely stretch of highway between Sin City and Southern California, which sets up the first non-conference Battle of I-15 when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. You name the available quarterback, the Steelers have probably been connected to them at some point this offseason, much to the exhaustion of the fan base. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. This time around, things will be different, because this is a different Mike White. It's difficult to imagine that happening today. And if Cook has, say, a 1,600-rushing yard, 600-receiving yard, 20-touchdown year? 2021: 77.1. With Thibodeaux's early-season effectiveness thus at least somewhat in question, I think Aidan Hutchinson becomes the clear favorite. Las Vegas offense exploded against the Chargers and Seahawks, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 teams in Defense DVOA. Aaron: Well, the Football Outsiders team projections narrowly put the Chargers over the Chiefs for the AFC West title and the Vikings over the Packers for the NFC North title. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? According to Football Outsiders advanced metrics, the Dolphins rank 28th against short passes. Garrett Wilson (+1400) was second in Playmaker Score and should have plenty of opportunity as WR1 for the New York Jets. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, 2022 Award Predictions: Most Valuable Mahomes, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The relationship between Kingsbury and Kyler Murray does appear strained, even as they do their best to assure everyone that no, everything's fine, really, it's great down here. Otherwise, yeah, it's just talking about who might win the awards which is something everybody talks about including voters. Can that line handle more volume while cutting the pressure rate. I have a fair amount of respect for Cousins. In reply to Much as I hate to say it, by KnotMe. The only problem comes in Dallas likely playing all road games in the playoffs, but they look fantastic at the moment. The Dolphins have an exciting offense. The amount of Mahomes fanboy love on this site, which is supposed to be about analytics, is verging on ridiculous. I will note that BackCAST didn't like him at all, but BackCAST isn't coaching the Houston Texans. If Jimmy Garoppolo can lead a team to the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts can lead a team to the Super Bowl. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. Hes a media lightning rod and people wont be bored of him winning it again in a very public contract year. After all, I did say he would be the Bosa brother with the most sacks, and if the 49ers manage to win the NFC West, the biggest reason will probably be their defensive front. While some respected shops are on the high end with the road team, the market consensus is Raiders -6. Ask Kyle Shanahan (35-16 with Garoppolo at the helm, 8-28 without him, counting playoffs) about his value, Weintraub writes. I think McCarthy is in real danger. The 2019 team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did. And, at +10000, he's about as long of a longshot as you can get. Bryan: Or Kenny Pickett. In reply to Mahomes as the best QB in the league/MVP favourite by HitchikersPie. Since I think SF has the schedule and talent to be a top seed, my pick would be Trey Lance. It's harder to go with a cornerback than an edge rusher because of issues with forcing yourself into plays; it's easier for a good cornerback to blend in a little bit as other players are targeted. I also challenge that "their division is weaker than . The Rams have fallen to 3-9, with defensive superstar Aaron Donald and quarterback Matthew Stafford shut down for the season. For the opening salvo of Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Have fun against that pass rush, wrecked Chargers offensive line (especially you, right tackle Foster Sarell). Bryan: This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. And if McCarthy does get fired midseason, I think Quinn is the one most likely to replace him on the fly. In reply to Surprised there was no by mehllageman56. We already know he's one of KUBIAK's favorite underrated players this season. I don't think it's a given that Miami is worse than any AFCN team, either. Aaron: For +1000, I'm not falling for the Isaiah Likely hype. Motivating the talent. That workload has shot up the past three games, with Los Angeles handing off on 50.56% of snaps for carry counts of 33, 28, and 30. Sometimes, gambling advice is objectivelike in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. Dalvin Cook makes it three out of three running backs for my picks, which may be silly considering the actual guy with the vote just picked a bunch of wideouts, but you're right. If either of those things happen, the head coach in question is a very good Coach of the Year candidate. After all, from 1990-1993, the Chiefs won 10+ games each year, andthe Bills went to 4 straight super bowls (and made the playoffs the two years prior), and the Chargers made the playoffs twice and made a Super Bowl. KC is going to have a lead a lot more than Detroit, which leads to pass rushing opportunities. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. Since Nakobe Dean may not start, that leaves me with Devin Lloyd of the Jacksonville Jaguars as the best value on the board at +1500. You pair him with a very solid group of skill position players and Pickett-to-Pickens sweeps the nation. We know that Justin Herbert is the kind of quality quarterback who can win a Super Bowl title. Yeah, I could absolutely see him winning OPOY, and all those thresholds seem at least possible enough for +3000. NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. Plus the coaches. Imagine that the other three teams end up with losing records. which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. Bryan Knowles: New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. If Jacksonville wants to make a run at a playoff berth, they need to take care of their divisional competition, and their passing offense could be enough to spring the upset here if they can hit a few big chunk plays down the field. The concerns at quarterback are magnified by an offensive line unable to protect the passer and sitting 30th in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders. Vincent Verhei: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. I love my chances to cash in big on both yards and touchdowns here. Now, think about the fact that many of us consider Urban Meyer possibly the worst head coach in NFL history. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. He's going to be my favorite in this category until the moment he retires, and then maybe a good season or two after that. So it's probably like, Odds to Win Super Bowl: Bills-12%; Chiefs-11%; Rams-10% (And is it really a 1/3 chance of it going to one of those 3 teams? Jimmy and Jerrah were best buds from their Arkansas days. Bryan: OK, not the Ravens, I get it. So I admit to being a bit bedazzled by the third man to hit that mark, Christian McCaffrey, as I love his playstyle and his usage beyond the limits of rational thought. I've been assured by Vikings fans that Zimmer was a bad coach; but I dont think he was. Baker, in theory, is a massive upgrade over Darnold who probably was the worst non rookie starting QB in the league last year. The under is 20-13 on Thursday Night Football over the past two seasons, so Ill bet it to happen one more time. easy money for Vegas) to see Watson on these lists at all, ironically tied with Baker on MVP. When they had to start over with rookies everywhere, it was just run of the mill bad. Get the latest betting offers for our winning football betting tips including 1x2 (WDW), Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Under/Over 2.5 Goals, BTTS & Win and a host of multi-bet accumulators. I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Raiders at Rams on December 8. ET kickoff. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. Imagine that the Chiefs do that and maybe finish the regular season 15-2 after trading away Tyreek Hill. With all their injuries last season, it feels like they have a half-dozen guys who could claim this one. There will be plenty of touches to go around between Pollard and Elliott, and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them score at least once. We have picked each When I placed a few bets in Las Vegas last year, I also did not place a bet on any AP award. He should be the clear WR1 in Tennessee with the problems Treylon Burks is having right now, and he could put up excellent numbers if Ryan Tannehill concentrates on throwing to him. Game script would also work against running the ball, considering Las Vegas is a 6-point favorite and likely forcing L.A. to play from behind and pass more, even with McVay being relentless with the run despite falling behind against the Chiefs and Saints. How active remains to be seen, but theres some serious holes for the Steelers to fill ahead of the start of the 2022 regular season. Our projections love the Saints' defense. Bryan: I feel like if I explain why Nick Sirianni is my best bet, I'm going to be jumping all over your Philadelphia Eagles optimism. Bryan: Nothing wrong with that; Bosa these guys are pretty good. I personally looked at that roster and felt like they were overachievers all things considered. I was a bit surprised to see the Football Outsiders so bearish on the Skins predicting they win 5.6 games in 2011. And sighed. Surprised there was no mention of Sauce Gardner or George Karlaftis in the DROY discussion. The first is the player we think is most likely to win the category, regardless of the odds given. When we did the quarterback tier list earlier this offseason, there was a little talk about whether Burrow should be in the A tier or high in the B+ tier. That was true when he lusted for Sean Payton while Parcells was the coach. God knows we paid enough money for him, and we need him to lessen the pain of being w/o Chris Godwin. Jackson Roberts: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions. Bryan: My longshot pick is Khalil Mack, only because there are enough skill position players who are going to put up gaudy fantasy numbers that Mack might get a little lost in the shuffleespecially if he ends up playing second fiddle to Joey Bosa on a strong Chargers team. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. Packers seem to be on a downswing rather than an upswing, Rams / AFC West teams are in tough divisions, 49ers are relying on Lance, etc. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Stafford is also a decent value pick for MVP, although probably not the best. And if this award is generally now reserved for the best non-quarterback skill position player, it's hard to go away from Taylor as the favorite. Yes, we have the Chargers slightly ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs this year. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. They have only had three games with a positive DVOA all season, and two of them were against Baker Mayfield and John Wolford. '), and narratives do win awards like this. That would be on brand for this awful, awful decade. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. But I still think that, by the end of the year, Hall will be RB1 in New York and putting up enough highlight-reel plays to get noticed. Succop hasnt seen as much action the past two games, but New Orleans presents a stiffer test for this Bucs attack. Aaron: Well, Dobbins was my best longshot bet, anyway. Covering NFL since 2006 And I'd rather go with that than go with any of these running backs staying healthy. 29 pass defense. Aside: PFR is still using "SDG" as the team code for the Chargers. I'm writing articles on Thursdays now! Bryan Knowles: Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders. 19 Responses to Football Outsiders: Watch Russell Gage Blow Up Chris Tucker@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says: July 5th, 2022 at 8:27 am. I mean, the Patriots were the most cursed team in the NFL throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Based on the various podcasts/articles the Vikings are clearly a popular pick to 'surprise'. Before considering that he lost his WR1 which previous FO research showed *generally* resulted in worse outcomes for both QB and WR in year N+1, and his best weapon is an ever aging Kelce. He's my longshot pick at +8000. Sign Up Now. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Going back to 2006, the Saints are 9-12 SU but 14-7 ATS (67%) as underdogs in a divisional road game. Minnesota Vikings (+650) This is where I tend to disagree with a lot of people. Schatz knows what he's doing, but a projection for them to be top-5 in all 3 phases seems. aggressive, given their track record to date. The resident cheeseheads here have mentioned this before, but LeFleur's teams hardly ever blow out their opponents when they win. That short number has remained relatively steady all week, with some brief dips to 40 points seeing buyback on the Over and the number sitting at an industry consensus of 40.5 as of Sunday morning. My head hurts but I can see it. The forecast for Monday night is calling for perfect prime-time conditions with clear skies and little to no wind come the 8:15 p.m. Aaron: My favorite "what is he coming back from?" But more importantly, the Rams are one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, ranking fifth in Football Outsiders Rush Defense DVOA and first in RBSDM.coms Expected Points Added allowed per rush. Analysis has shown that barring qb a team can absorb the loss of a great player contingent on making good decisions elsewhere. Last year was pretty much the definition of "any given sunday" in the postseason so no pick is all that good really. MVP is a bit of a narrative award also, and Mahomes putting up big numbers after losing Hill makes a nice story. But I think Travis Etienne and Cam Akers are also good choices for CPOY, given that each of those players will also be RB1. Thanks in part to their schedule putting them ahead of better teams, but still, if they do that, Nick Sirianni is getting a lot of Coach of the Year support. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. 10 wins seems like the Packers floor unless something crazy like a Rodgers injury happens. Las Vegas is on a three-game run and coming off a solid two-way performance against the L.A. Chargers on Sunday. Aaron Schatz: Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers. Goodbye, Lovie Smith (+4000). Why is it so hard to believe the 49ers can't manufacture a win? Recognizing talent. When he had good defenders, their defense was really good. For a rb to win MVP, we would need a similar dead heat race between two QBs plus a running back putting up huge numbers on a team that was a 1 seed. At a certain point, the Chargers curse is going to go away. They cannot throw deep, as Kyler Murray has some of the worst deep attempt splits we have ever seen. Football Outsiders predictions dont fare very well. It's a little surprising he was brought back for 2022 to begin with, as the Panthers have had roughly zero success with him in charge. No shortage of coverage throughout the season. The Arizona offseason has been contentious, to say the least, with new points of drama popping up nearly every week. They have also scored more at home, with Succop perfect on extra points this year (15-for-15). They're the team to beat. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. What if Kenny Pickett is good? Look, he's a great player. Jacksonville is coming off their worst game by DVOA this year but is only one week removed from a major upset win over the Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys are a terrible choice at +280 because at this point, they're way behind the Eagles just because Philly's got the inside track for the bye which kicks Dallas out to #5. Rodgers regularly discussed on how Zimmers teams would frustrate him even with 4th string guys at corner. But, Cousins has been pressured on pass plays at a pretty hefty rate with past Vikings lines. This site doesnt even pick him to win his division. Bryan: You're right when you say that rookie quarterbacks are the best choices for rookie of the year, when they play. According to DraftKings, 68% of bet count and 78% of handle is riding on the Raiders in their home away from home while Covers Consensus concurs with 63% of picks siding with the Silver and Black. No? The second is the player we think is the best betthe best value for your money. The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 43 points and has climbed to 44.5 points as of Tuesday evening. But it is possible he could put up another Tyreke year. Neither option is an appealing one. There are multiple elements of coaching. I could see it. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? I think the 49ers are the better team, and even the better team with Brock Purdy at quarterback, but come on, the idea of Tom Brady beating a great defense when that team's offense is hamstrung by a seventh-round rookie? Bet Now, B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! For +6000, however, I'm willing to put a little bit of longshot money on the Isaiah Likely hype. Pro bettors quickly grabbed the points with New Orleans and slimmed this spread considerably, marking one of the more drastic line moves of Week 13. That said, Tampa Bays playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. In reply to How likely is Dallas to by colonialbob. Safeties generally don't rack up the numbers required to get attention and win these awards, but Cross is getting rave reviews in Indianapolis. Maybe next year! I think the Steelers are more at, like, 2% or 3%. Jackson Roberts: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers. The Bills have to contend with another team on a somewhat comparable level to them, which would not be true if they were in the AFC North. Aaron: I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. Since taking the job with the Rams in 2017, Sean McVay is 16-9 SU versus the AFC but just 9-14-2 ATS, including a 1-4-1 ATS mark as a non-conference underdog. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Aaron: I'm going to go with Robert Woods at +5000 as my longshot. And with Pickett's odds too short for me, that leaves one rookie passer with the chance to play significant time this year: Desmond Ridder. In fact, it's probably more likely to happen if the Bills take a lead and the Jets have to throw to come back, compared to the close game these teams played five weeks ago. Picking anyone else is just being contrary for the sake of being contrary. The answer is the Eagles, whether or not Jimmy G is back. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. If the Buccaneers slip, and a defense-led Saints team takes the division, Allen is going to get some credit for taking over from Sean Payton and finding a way to get back into the playoffs. Bryan: If the Chargers are as good as we think they're going to be, we're probably going to see a lot of awards headed their way. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? The Niners signal-caller is much better than his national perception would have you believe. Full methodology . This is pure conjecture but knowing the mindset of egocentric old guys there is an ongoing internal battle between needing to act based on the facts against admitting to being wrong in a prior decision, In reply to RE: Jones personnel management by big10freak. For the opening salvo of Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football. Worcester, MA, Staff Writer The Raiders defense continues to spark this turnaround, most notably the pass rush, while the offense put up 404 yards in Week 13 and is averaging 0.449 points per play during this streak fifth highest in that span. Ja'Marr Chase returned last week to give QB Joe Burrow his big weapon in his top trio or receivers. This is one where the win projection is higher than Schatz would like, but he believes there is reason for optimism. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. If he starts jumping routes like 2021 Trevon Diggs and ends up with a gaudy INT # then +2000 might be viable. If they can get that fixed, there's a pretty good core here. Maybe they are remembering when Randy Moss was making guys likeCulpepper look good and expecting something like that. Especially because he's a showy coach, in that a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness. I get that not all the voters might think this way, but there are some low odds here for players whom I would never, ever vote for, regardless of how good of a season they put up. Seems difficult. Now we come on to the big onesthe winners of the league's individual awards. NFL Picks. That's not the most important part of coaching, necessarily, but it is one of the most visible, and having success in a visible way is a great way to garner attention and votes. He was my favorite guy coming out of the draft, I think he fits really well for Dan Campbell, and he's going to produce a lot of highlight-reel plays very quicklya lead that Thibodeaux may not be able to claw back by the time he's back up to speed. Aaron: Well, I have been on all kinds of radio shows and podcasts and even Good Morning Football talking about how the Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites. And what if the other 49 voters who are not me actually pay attention to things like cornerback charting stats and evengasp!PFF grades and realize how good AJ Terrell is? The Colts of all teams were above them. Succops kicking point total is set at 7.5 and hes topped his points prop in three of his last four home games. At the same time, it's perplexing (i.e. In fact, the CoMA predictions are no worse in general and slightly more accurate in terms of MAE. Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. 2022 Week 14 Steelers Vs Ravens Live Update And Discussion Thread First Half, Kenny Pickett Obviously Befitting The 1st-Round Pick They Took Him With, Ravens HC Says. It has been a fun story in New York this year, but reality appears to be setting in for the Giants as they cling to a wild-card spot in the NFC playoff picture. Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST. But I think the Eagles have a shockingly good chance of winning the No. So I think he's a good choice for Comeback Player of the Year. It would make Andy Reid an excellent Coach of the Year candidate and a good longshot at +2800. They are not a sexy team, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think. Ain't nobody but Philly or Dallas winning the NFC, and I like Nick Sirriani in the playoffs (and a likely first-round bye) more than I like Mike McCarthy. Toney recorded 984 receiving yards, but his team threw 473 passes, resulting Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. Drew Brees was the league's leading passer, but the Saints had a losing record. This year is actually more interesting than most, as we have traditionally just had the Scramble writers poking at things. He's one tough SOB. Vincent Verhei: New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals. But some will go to Cousins, and at +5000, or a 2% implied probability, that's good enough for me! So while I'm taking Patrick Mahomes as my favorite as I believe he is still the best quarterback in football, the more interesting question might be if there's any situation where a quarterback doesn't win this award? This point spread hit the board as low as Las Vegas -5.5 on Sunday night and quickly marched as high as -6.5 on Tuesday. Before Stafford was lost to injury, Sean McVays playbook was handing off on only 36.35% of snaps fourth lowest in the league for an average of just 22.1 rush attempts per contest (fewest in the NFL). He lost Hill. And yet, he is the consensus pick to lead the league in yards, TDs, and win MVP. I also question if the Bills secondary can hold up enough to secure a top seed. 2 pass offense and the Chargers have the No. Maybe the owner's too busy to fire someone midseason, but unless the Commanders are significantly more competent than I'm giving them credit for, it's probably time for a complete restart. And it's disappointing that someone of his talent couldn't just take the job and run with it from Day 1. The Eagles ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). It's not a bad bet per se. 2021: 18.6%. Yes, he is good for a couple of what the heck was that? Hill could put up extraordinary numbers, and maybe McDaniel uses him as a runner a bit too, which gives that little extra novelty that might get Hill some OPOY votes. Aaron: I'm basically in agreement here. (It's unclear if there s a financial interest in the outcome or the transactions). However, I have a little more faith in the Chargers than the Vikings. The Raiders bring a three-game winning streak with them to SoFi Stadium, which will feature plenty of Silver and Black in the stands, going back to the franchises time in L.A. Los Angeles is trying to tread water on a broken season but made waves by picking up castoff quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has a chance to play with Matthew Stafford out and backup John Wolford injured. It's hard to know if he can take tackles away from Foyesade Oluokun, but if he can, he could put up big (somewhat empty, but big) tackle numbers. The Raiders will work the offense through Adams and Josh Jacobs. Likely? Seattle has too tough a closing schedule to represent any real value, and there is not magic playoff switch Tom Brady could flip that would get me to trust a team thats played as poorly as the Buccaneers most of the season. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are seventh in situation-neutral pace, and the Lions are eighth. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. O'Connell is brand new. Dallas looks like the hottest team in football in two of their last three games, and if their new floor is a one-score game against the Giants with three second-half touchdowns, Ill take it. That was matched 15 years later by Marshall Faulk, whom I think never gets enough credit in the "best running back of all time" discussion. In this analysis, we considered present value, likely Brown. We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 13 plus a bonus question each week. He has done a wonderful job of managing his salary. How likely is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury? If you want to insinuate that something untoward is going on, make an accusation. Vincent Verhei: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL. Cale Clinton: Dallas Cowboys (+280). A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing Aaron: I think it's more likely that Cooper Kupp puts up another year of fantastic receiving numbers than it is that Jonathan Taylor can match last year's rushing numbers. So 2021 was no aberration. He had the college production and great measurables and he's in a good situation where he can be the top pass-rusher and get plenty of snaps. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Steelers Predicted As Landing Spot For Jimmy Garoppolo By ESPN Insider Field Yates https://t.co/Ckbulz9OeX #Steelers pic.twitter.com/gwN2Bs5w71, Steelers Depot 7 (@Steelersdepot) March 4, 2022. With few people wanting to offer odds on fifth-round nickel cornerbacks, I'm instead going with Nick Cross, who looks to have won the starting safety job in Indianapolis. Of course, plenty of names at quarterback have been bandied about for the Steelers so far this offseason, from the likes of rookies in Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Matt Corral, to free agents such as Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, and Jacoby Brissett. He's going to come back not only from injury but from last year's dismal playoff performance. In reply to Totally agree with Carl on by Pat. The numbers don't necessarily say that the Eagles will win the NFC. Very fun at parties, I swear. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? So whatever gains on offense might be offset by slippage on the defense. Not ridiculous. 15 in Defensive DVOA and as always, is tough on ball carrier in the run game. Bryan: And speaking of former (or soon to be former) Carolina coaches, I think we're reaching the end of the line for Ron Rivera in Washington. Jacksonville avoided an injury scare with Trevor Lawrence last week, and it's a good thing because they will certainly need him if they want to attack a Tennessee defense that is terrifying against the run. Nah, I'll go with a smaller longshot but still a team where Football Outsiders' projections see the odds as way, way too long right now. Minnesota at the #2 seed with +650 is solid odds, even if it's unlikely. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Aaron: What if AJ Terrell (+6500) puts together another year like last year, where he had the best cornerback charting stats since Darrelle Revis? I guess it's in part because their conference is weaker at the top, and inside the AFC, their division is weaker than at least the West and the North. New Orleans sits No. But I do agree that the hype seems to treat them as established Kings in the East, and, like, we can all see they actually finished below Mac "3 PAs" Jones and the Pats in offensive (and specifically passing) DVOA last year, right? 2 tight end gets some OROY votes? Such tenacity. I'm still a big Justin Herbert fan but the Chargers are a mess otherwise, especially on defense. How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committees past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. Bryan: I have been looking for odds on Sammy Womack everywhere, because if I don't get one homer pick in these things, I start to break out in hives. But its very complicated. Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' full TNF player prop picks. Yes, he isnt as gifted as a Rodgers or aMatthew Stafford. This time around, White isnt afraid to take shots downfield, and the Jets offense is exploiting zone looks for big yards after the catch. And Kirk was very fortunate last season. Not even mentioning all the new defensive additions Staley's been provided, which the voters of course would mention. Bryan: But speaking of running backs staying healthy, you had J.K. Dobbins as your best bet to lead the league in rushing yards this season. And what if OK, now you really have to imagine what if the Atlanta Falcons win enough games for people to actually pay attention to how good AJ Terrell is? I think Jerry has a particular fetish for the young innovative offensive coordinator type. 2022 ABC News Internet Ventures. They cannot run the ball or stop the run. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. And not just "runs a two-minute drill in the preseason like a veteran" good, but actually, factually, top-10 good? That's the Philadelphia Eagles at +2200. In reply to RE: Vikings chatter by big10freak. The division strugglesCincinnati is more like they were in the regular season than the playoffs; Jackson doesn't find his 2019 form in Baltimore; Cleveland, is, well, Cleveland. Aaron: I don't care that he has the lowest odds. Getting Philadelphia at plus-value is probably the pick, but Ill take Dallas at slightly better odds. Much more than that seems difficult. :). I actually laughed out loud at that. He's way, way ahead of any of the other options that are above +5000. The Texans run defense is impressively bad. We know that opponents will also need to pay attention to Jaylen Waddle. We NEED for him to Blow Up! Pick something else or reset. My random sample size is a few podcasts along with sites like FO. Aaron: I'm going to go three out of three on wide receivers. We have picked each team's over/unders and predicted the individual leaders in a plethora of stats. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. The Eagles also have the easiest projected schedule in the league, and that's before we attempt to account for the Tyron Smith injury and what it will probably do to the Dallas offense through at least December. Finally, if you wish to not see this dialog box, please turn off your adblocker, and enjoy content normally, 2022 NFL Scouting Combine Results Tracker, 2021 NFL Pro Day Results Tracker Scouting Combine Invitees. Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. I just looked at the upset board and wasnt as in love with the Jags as my colleagues, so I decided to go against the 7th round rookie making his first career start, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Its probably why he fell in love with Jimmy Johnson. Football Outsiders Almanac has a pessimistic prediction for the Jets: theyre far more likely to lose six or more games (56% chance, according to our simulations) than to win nine or more (18% chance). Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. There are less reasons to doubt them than any of the other top teams - KC lost Hill, nobody believes in the Cowboys (understandably), TB didn't look quite as fearsome by the end of the year + one of these days Brady will fall off. right? voters will choose O'Connell over Staley if both take their divisions. This team sits 28th in EPA per play since Week 9, with the passing game as its biggest blemish (24th in DVOA at Football Outsiders). If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. Conversely, Im not sure if the Raiders will take advantage of the Rams defense. Yet. Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Should one or both of those players be active, this spread could jump to a touchdown. If Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack can outduel the Baltimore Ravens secondary, they should hopefully be able to take care of business against a weaker Titans passing defense. Akers may share time with Darrell Henderson, but it's going to be a very good offense. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. Andy Dalton remains the starting QB for Week 13, leading an offense that has produced points totals of 13, 10, and zero in three of its last four outings. In reply to Due in part to Cousins and by theslothook. I look at the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Saints vs. I am not impressed with their math skills. I understand why hype puts receivers such as George Pickens and Skyy Moore ahead of Wilson, but those guys won't be the focal point of their teams' passing games the way Wilson should be. I do think he is a bit underrated (most of the middle guys are), but he isn't gonna be close to Rodgers in any sane projection. Sign Up Now. You want to pick the team from Pennsylvania who we expect to do well. The Bucs are 22nd in Red Zone DVOA and are scoring on only half of their tries inside the opponents 20-yard line. The Chargers are 26th in DVOA against those. Carl Yedor: Minnesota Vikings (+650). DraftKings was reporting 55% of bets on the Over but 51% of the handle on the Under for Monday Night Football. Insert all the usual talk about running back draft value and such here. While it would not be a first-round bye, they would still have a reasonable path to the NFC Championship Game, particularly if they can avoid Dallas in the divisional round. It will not be easy to make Raiders vs. Rams predictions because this is an ugly game. Dude. Akers picked up 60 yards and two touchdowns from those handoffs and played 72% of snaps a sudden increase in action after working as RB2 behind Kyren Williams since his return to the lineup. Bold, at least to many covering the Steelers at this point in time, would be signing cornerback JC Jackson to the richest deal in position history, or trading a bunch of future picks for Aaron Rodgers and prying the championship window wide open once again. Thoseleaders and top twos are all still around. Bryan: Wilson at +1400 for a division-winning Broncos team makes a significant amount of sense, but his odds aren't long enough for me to pick him as a longshot. Editors' Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly and can differ from site to site. Is this where I give my big Jacksonville Jaguars speech again? Don't even know if the personnel is a fit for the new scheme. In reply to Aside: PFR is still using by Spanosian Magn. Also baffled at the number for the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Miami defense has improved since Bradley Chubb showed up, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA against the pass since Week 9. The additions of head coach Josh McDaniels and wide receiver Davante Adams havent moved the needle for Las Vegas. Additionally, if you'd like to donate above and beyond the ad-free option, you can donate via PayPal as well. This is even more true if all those question marks we mentioned for the Saints offense yesterday end up not working out; if Jameis Winston is more like Tampa Bay Winston and Michael Thomas is still injured and Chris Olave is a rookie. Aaron: Agreed, Hutchinson is the favorite here. The best bet is still Rhule. Aaron: My best value would have been Dak Prescott at +1600 until the Tyron Smith injury, but now I hesitate about whether the offense can be good enough for Prescott to put up MVP numbers. And I know that Hall played with the second team during the Jets' preseason, while Carter got to rest with the starters. They're one-man jobs rather than Scramble's old two-person stuff, so we're calling it something new, but it's the same articles and topics we've always covered. And no, at this point, I think that enough voters believe in the importance of quarterback value that this is a quarterback award. 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